UAB Blazers vs W. Kentucky Hilltoppers Point Spread Picks

A pair of teams from Conference USA having winning seasons. UAB is 12-5 UNDER the total on FieldTurf, plus 30-11 UNDER after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Both these teams have terrific offenses, but UAB also has a great pass defense, ranked 15th in the nation 176.2 passing yards per game. The Blazers are allowing 17.3 points per game (5-2 UNDER the total) and are 14-5 UNDER after a home victory in a conference tilt. Western Kentucky has a high-octane attack behind QB Austin Reed (21 TDs, 5 INTs) but they also have a fine defense, #53 in the country in total yards allowed and #22 in points surrendered (22 per game). And a college football team like Western Kentucky with a winning percentage between 51% to 60% is 173-104 UNDER the total versus winning teams. Play UAB/Western Kentucky UNDER the total.

Western Kentucky is getting very good play utilizing two quarterbacks who have combined for 7 TDs, no picks. QB Tyrrell Pigrome (6 TDs) is their leading rusher with 225 yards, while QB Kevaris Thomas sparked the offense late last week in relief in a loss to Marshall. They beat Middle Tennessee (20-17) on the road and lost 35-21 to Louisville forcing 2 turnovers while holding the Cardinal to 3.8 yards per rush at home. Western Kentucky is 36-17 ATS as an underdog, including 5-2-1 ATS against winning teams. They are also 25-11 ATS versus opponents who average 60+ penalty yards per game and face a UAB squad off a 21-13 win over Texas-San Antonio as a 21-point favorite. They opened the season as 20-point chalk over Central Arkansas and squeezed out a 45-35 victory as the offense turned it over 3 times. UAB is 13-29 ATS against teams that allow over 120 yards rushing per game. Western Kentucky beat UAB 20-13 last year and this shapes up as another close one. Play Western Kentucky for a Max Play.

UAB is unbeaten, led by a defense that is allowing 14 points and 281 total yards per game. UAB is on an 18-8 run UNDER the total, including 12-4 UNDER in conference games, 9-3 UNDER on field-turf. They are also 16-6 UNDER after getting 450+ total yards in their previous game. They face a struggling Western Kentucky offense that is #93 in the nation in total yards, #102 in points averaging 23 per contest. That's nothing new, as last season they won only three games while ranking #118 in points (21.1 pg). Western Kentucky is 7-3 UNDER the total when following a spread loss and this shapes up as a defensive duel. Go with the UNDER.