Texas A&M Aggies vs Vanderbilt Commodores Point Spread Picks

Vanderbilt didn't win many games last year, but they played well against some of the best of the SEC. Vandy held No. 3 Georgia to 30 points, scored 38 on LSU, held South Carolina to 24 points on the road, lost by 18 at rival Tennessee, and upset No. 22 ranked Missouri, 21-14. Vanderbilt is 21-8 ATS away from home when the total is between 42.5 and 49, as well as 14-4 ATS on the road when the total is between 45.5 and 49. Texas A&M is a huge favorite but lost some key players in the last 10 days. A&M WR Jhamon Ausbon led the team in receiving in 2019 but opted out of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL draft. Starting linebacker Anthony Hines also just decided to opt-out. Even before those losses, the team had questions marks at wide receiver and an offensive line that struggled in run-blocking while allowing 69 total sacks over the past two years. A&M beat three teams by 30+ points last season, but all were small programs (Texas State, Lamar, UTSA). They beat SEC teams Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Mississippi State by an average of 13 points, and none by more than 24. Play Vanderbilt.

I'm not sure if I have ever seen a team arrive at week 12 in the CFB season, having played just one road game on the season. That has been the case for Texas A&M, who has played 7 of its 10 games at home, two at a neutral site and just one on the road. That road game did not turn out very well, as the Aggies lost 23-3 at Ole Miss, and they will face a very strong defense in Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is somehow 4-6 and with two wins could become Bowl eligible, despite averaging just 15.4 points per game. That is because the defense allows just 17.4 ppg. I don't expect much offense here, as Vandy has played nine games vs. FBS opponents and seven of those never made it out of the 30s, and the most points a Vandy game has seen this season is 45. Vandy is now 48-22-1 to the UNDER in their last 71 conference games. This one stays UNDER.