TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Point Spread Picks

Texas Tech had its four-game win streak snapped 59-35 against Baylor, and the Red Raiders look to bounce back against TCU, which it defeated 35-28 last year. The Horned Frogs are 4-3 and come off a 13-7 win at Utah and it went UNDER by 32 points. TCU QB Josh Hoover completed only 22 of 41 for 263 yards with no TDs and the defense held the Utes to 267 total yards. Texas Tech was stunned by five TD passes by Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson, but the Red Raider defense will have better luck against Hoover, who has thrown six interceptions his past four games. Four of TCU's past five home games have stayed UNDER, and I'm betting that trend to continue. Take the UNDER.

TCU has a good chance to make a bowl despite coming off its worst loss of the season, 41-3, at Kansas State. The Horned Frogs have a balanced offense that was averaging 488 yards through the first seven games. Two quarterbacks have combined for 18 TDs and 11 picks while RB Emani Bailey (851 yards 5.8 yards per carry) is having a strong campaign. TCU will be able to run on a Texas Tech defense that is 66th in the nation allowing 147.9 yards rushing per game. Texas Tech has lost two straight, including the last game as a favorite, 27-14, to BYU with 5 turnovers. They've been going with freshman QB Jake Strong (2 TDs, 6 INTs) as QB Behren Morton has missed two straight with an injury. Morton may be able to play in this one. TCU won 34-24 a year ago over Texas Tech with 429 yards, including 234 rushing, and the Red Raiders have failed to cover six in a row after outgaining the opponent by 125+ yards in the last game. Play the TCU Horned Frogs. 

Texas Tech comes off a 45-17 disaster to Baylor but at 4-4, they're still alive for a bowl. The Red Raiders hung in there with three close losses to Top 25 teams (NC State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State), plus have wins over No. 25 Houston (33-30) and No. 22 Texas (37-34). Texas Tech is 35-18 ATS off a home loss, 34-19 ATS after a loss by 21+ points, plus 28-12 ATS after a bad game where they committed four or more turnovers. TCU is undefeated and a big favorite, though they haven't been blowing teams out. In the last four games, TCU has won by 7, 3, 10, and 10 points. That's because the defense is not elite surrendering an average of 31.3 points over the last six contests. Pass-happy coach Sonny Dykes is 21-37 ATS after playing three consecutive conference tilts, as well as 14-28 ATS in November games. In addition, Texas Tech is 49-28 ATS against teams that average over 200 yards rushing. Play Texas Tech.