Stanford Cardinal vs USC Trojans Point Spread Picks

Rebuilding Stanford went 3-9 last year and has a new coach. That included a 41-28 loss at home to USC giving up 505 yards (341 passing). USC was up 35-14 at the half and led 41-14 in the fourth. Stanford is in a difficult situational spot, playing its second straight road game. And they played last week in Honolulu, Hawaii, a 2,500-mile trip as the defense surrendered 355 passing yards. The Cardinal lost Tanner McKee to the NFL, so sophomore QB Ashton Daniels started last week. Stanford is on a 6-19 spread run, including 4-16 ATS as a dog. USC is loaded with talent, headlined by Heisman Trophy-winning junior QB Caleb Williams and a defense that led the nation in turnover margin (+22). They have two games under their belt, ripping San José State (56-28) and Nevada (66-14). College football home favorites like the Trojans that averaged 6.4+ yards per play in the previous season returning 8+ offensive starters are 23-5 ATS in the first month versus an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. USC is also 25-12 ATS at home after scoring 24+ first-half points. Play USC.

USC played a sloppy game and committed four turnovers and lost its starting quarterback to a season-ending injury. Yet USC still managed to beat Fresno State on Saturday night. JT Daniels finished 25-of-34 for 215 yards with a touchdown and interception before true freshman Kedon Slovis took over in the second half and completed 6-of-8 for 57 yards with no TDs and an interception. Stanford came into the season with only five defensive starters returning, but David Shaw's squad was up to the task and held Northwestern to only 210 total yards in a 17-7 win that went UNDER by 22.5 points. Plus, the last score came with less than a minute left when Jordan Fox recovered a fumble in the end zone, which gave the Cardinal the cover. Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello was a solid 16-of-20 for 152 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Cameron Scarlett gained 97 yards on 22 carries, but Stanford still has to prove it can put enough points on the board with only four starters returning on offense, including two on the line. Also, Costello is questionable this week with a head injury. USC has gone UNDER five of its last six games after a win and the Cardinal is 11-5 UNDER its last 16 following a win. Stanford won last year's meeting 17-3 and it went UNDER by 34.5 points. Play the UNDER.

This is another big Pac-12 rivalry game, one that Stanford has done well in over the last decade. USC plays its first road game with freshman QB J.T. Daniels, who didn't exactly dazzle against UNLV last week. And neither did the Trojans' defense which was gouged for 308 rushing yards, a whopping 7.2 yards per carry. UNLV had 405 total yards against a USC defense that continued last season's penchant for allowing explosive gains. USC swept Stanford twice last season, but that was with QB Sam Darnold, who is in the NFL. And they had to rally in the Pac-12 title game for a 31-28 win. Now they face a terrific all-around Stanford squad that beat three top 20 teams last fall. The offense welcomes back their quarterback (K.J. Costello), top five rushers (including Heisman Trophy runner-up Bryce Love), their top four receivers and four of five offensive linemen. Stanford also ripped a strong SDSU squad last week, 31-10. When they last met on this field Stanford rolled, 27-10, in 2016, running for 302 yards and 6.3 yards per carry. The wagering value is for the home team to win the game. Take Stanford on the moneyline.