South Florida Bulls vs W. Kentucky Hilltoppers Point Spread Picks

MIAMI BEACH BOWL: This Bowl was a good draw for the South Florida Bulls. They will have a strong contingent of fans present as they take on the potent offense of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. South Florida played a very tough schedule, losing four games to Maryland, Navy, Memphis, and Florida State. Their offense really came on late in the season as the Bulls closed by scoring an average of 51 points per game in their last three, as well as completing the season 7-1 as well as 7-1 ATS. It should be noted that the four losses they suffered all came as an underdog of more than a touchdown. The Bulls were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS as a pick-em or an underdog of less than 7.5 on the season, and are a dangerous dog in this contest. The Bulls have the edge here on defense as their nine games against teams that are not part of a power-five conference saw them allow 17.8 ppg. That all adds up to a dangerous, and under-the-radar underdog for this contest. Western Kentucky finished the season at 11-2, and is all about offense. The Hilltoppers' defense allowed 28 points or more points to eight of the 12 opponents they faced. I think this game is going to be high-scoring, but the Bulls have proven that they are more than equipped to match the Hilltoppers' potent offense, but also have a defense that has proven that they are capable of getting more stops. The Hilltoppers have been hampered on grass where they are 1-4 ATS in their last five, while the Bulls are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 on grass. Western Kentucky is 19-7-1 to the OVER in their last 27, and they will get their share here, but the emerging Bulls' offense will do it a bit better. Take both South Florida on the moneyline as well as the OVER.

This one certainly has the potential to get real ugly. Western Kentucky is now 0-25 vs. Div-1 teams since deciding to play amongst the ranks of Div-1 NCAAF. They certainly aren't knocking on the door to win No. 1, as they have started 0-2 this season losing by an average of over 30 points per game. South Florida has already eaten one cupcake this season with a 59-14 win over Stony Brook. That runs their total scores to 214-28 in their last four games against no-chance opponents. That is an average margin of 46.5 points per game. This one is likely to get ugly fast, and South Florida has shown that they will put up 50+ in these kinds of games - way more than enough to topple the big number here. The Bulls are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games when scoring 28+ points (assured here) and they are 10-2 ATS in their last twelve when outgaining opponents by 200+ yards. Skip Holtz is 13-4 ATS in his career when facing teams with bad defenses (allowing 6+ yards per play). The Hilltopers have allowed 7.5 per play thus far. The Bulls roll here.