South Florida Bulls vs Tulane Green Wave

Tulane went 11-3 last season, and that was following up on a team that went 12-2 the year before that. The 2022 version of Tulane was offense, as the Green wave scored 40+ eight times. Last year, the defense held five opponents to 16 or fewer points. Most of those players are gone, and Tulane has not been the type of team to rebuild quickly. They are 2-2 on the season, and all three of their FBS opponents have scored 33 or more points. South Florida was certainly no match for Miami, Fla., or Alabama, but take note they have played above the line as they are 3-1 ATS. I think S. Florida is a better team here, while Tulane's two consecutive years of success has them vastly overated. Make the play on South Florida.

Previously undefeated South Florida, which had played a weak schedule, was humbled 57-36 at Houston. South Florida allowed 682 yards of offense and Cougars quarterback, D'Eriq King, had a field day against the Bulls defense throwing for 419 yards and five touchdowns. The Bulls now are 0-4 ATS their last four conference games and 0-6 ATS their last six after allowing at least 200 rushing yards their previous game. Tulane won its third game of the season 24-17 at Tulsa racking up 312 yards on the ground on 5.7 yards per carry. Green Wave QB Justin McMillan passed only 19 times and completed 10 for 92 yards in his second game of the season. Tulane has gone UNDER five of its seven games this year and the Tulsa game stayed UNDER by seven points. The Green Wave has the edge defensively, ranking #87 in yards allowed compared to #108 for South Florida and Tulane looks to avenge last year's 34-28 loss to USF as a 10-point underdog. South Florida is 18-8-1 UNDER its last 27 games after a loss and 19-8 UNDER its last 27 November games. Also, the Bulls have stayed UNDER in 20 of their last 27 against teams with losing records. Tulane has gone UNDER six of its last eight conference games. Look for an outright win by the Green Wave, so play Tulane on the moneyline plus the UNDER.

South Florida comes off a 33-3 win over Cincinnati and it went UNDER by 27 points as the Bulls went to 6-0 in Charlie Strong's first year as coach. USF is 4-2 UNDER and has allowed an average of 17.2 points and Tulane has given up 26.8 per contest. USF held the Bearcats to 273 total offense yards and just 2.9 yards per carry. Quinton Flowers was 16-of-29 for 184 yards with no touchdowns for the Bulls. Tulane exploded for 62 points against Tulsa on Oct. 7, but otherwise has not scored more than 21 points against FBS teams this season. The Green Wave lost to Florida International 23-10 last week while accumulating only 239 yards of offense. Tulane ran for 203 yards but QB Jonathan Banks completed only five of 16 passes for 36 yards with an interception and the game went UNDER by 18.5 points. Tulane has gone UNDER five of its last six games against teams with winning records. Take the UNDER.