San Diego State Aztecs vs Stanford Cardinal Point Spread Picks

San Diego State coach Rocky Long likes the ground game and a stout defense, which chews up yards and the clock, keeping games low-scoring. It's a winning formula, too, with the team 32-9 the last three years. The San Diego State rushing attack was #10 in the nation in 2017 and will lead the way again behind RB Juwan Washington, who ran for 759 yards as a reserve last season. The ground game takes the pressure off an average passing attack. And the Aztecs defense is strong, allowing 10 or fewer points on four occasions while ranking #21 nationally in scoring defense, and top 10 against the run. They held Power 5 opponents Arizona State and Stanford to 20 and 17 points. San Diego State is 5-1 UNDER the total in Week 1 August games, as well as 4-1 UNDER when facing the Pac-12. They face a similar-style Stanford squad on a 7-3 run UNDER the total. Stanford was #30 in rushing last fall with over 200 yards per game and returns four of five offensive linemen, while the defense was #30 in points allowed. Last year's meeting was a 20-17 San Diego State win that went UNDER the total as both teams combined for just 267 yards passing. This will be another battle of field goals, punts and field position. Play this one to finish UNDER.

A pair of West Coast teams with talented running backs that like to run the pigskin and play physical defense. The Stanford Cardinal return eight starters on defense and have ranked among the nation's top 40 in rushing defense each of the past seven seasons, while finishing in the top five in four of those years. Stanford is 47-22-1 UNDER the total after a defeat, as well as 50-22-1 UNDER following a spread loss. Stanford is also 30-16 UNDER after a loss by 17 points or more. San Diego State can play tough defense, too, at 15-6-1 UNDER the total at home. San Diego State limited Arizona State to 44 rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt the last game. Over its first two games, the Aztecs have allowed just 1.74 yards per rush, which ranks fifth in the country. San Diego State is 11-5-1 UNDER the total in non-conference games, plus 17-7-1 UNDER on natural grass. The Aztecs are also 64-35 UNDER in the first half of the season. This one finishes UNDER.