Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs W. Kentucky Hilltoppers Point Spread Picks

Sam Houston’s defense has given up 49 points to Texas Tech and 35 to Liberty in its last two games, and 32.8 a game across its four FBS opponents. Western Kentucky’s defense has been run over more often: 49 to Nevada, 70 to Georgia, 38 to Indiana, and 34 to New Mexico State, for 40.8 a game across its five FBS opponents, including Missouri State’s 13. All five of those offenses gained at least 340 yards. Western Kentucky just scored 34 on 464 yards against Missouri State, its best output against an FBS opponent this season, while Sam Houston has scored 14 or fewer in each of its last two games and managed 3 at Liberty on 243 yards. Respected money is on the OVER too, with the dollars running ahead of the ticket count. I’m taking the OVER tonight. 

Each of these teams went 6-2 in Conference USA last year, tied for second place. Sam Houston State has a new look as 11-year head coach K.C. Keeler departed. Coach Phil Longo brings in an Air Raid playbook, though it will take time to click. Quarterback Hunter Watson is back, but was a runner (647 rushing yards), throwing for 12 TDs and eight picks. There are a ton of new players coming in, battling for positions. Sam Houston State is on an 11-4 run UNDER the total. Western Kentucky has only one offensive starter returning, losing its QB and top four receiving leaders. Western Kentucky is on an 8-4 run UNDER the total. Play Sam Houston State/Western Kentucky UNDER the total. 

Western Kentucky got clobbered 63-0 by Alabama in its season opener, but the Hilltoppers have bounced back to win four of five. The defense also made a comeback,as the Hilltoppers have allowed only 16.0 points per game since that loss to the Crimson Tide. Three of the games went UNDER and the Hilltoppers have stayed UNDER eight of their past 12 October games. Sam Houston is 5-3 UNDER its past eight games. The Bearkats have allowed 21.0 points per game their past four games. Sam Houston uses a lot of clock running the ball as it is piling up an average of 228.8 rushing yards per game. Western Kentucky is 5-0 UNDER the past five years in Week 8. Take the UNDER.