S. Miss Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats Point Spread Picks

It has been a tough season for Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles are just 1-8, and 0-8 against FBS teams. Despite the bad numbers, the Golden Eagles have only lost two games that would not have covered this number. Texas St. has a decent team, but they have only won two games all season that would have covered this line. It comes down to motivation, and I don't see Texas St. competing at a high level here, and there will be plenty of garbage time for Southern Miss to sneak in the back door. I like Southern Miss.

Texas State is off to a strong start with a potent offense (30 points per game) averaging over 400 yards behind QB T.J. Finley (8 TDs, 1 INT), RB Ismail Mahdi (399 yards, 11.1 ypc), and mobile QB/RB Malik Hornsby (146 yards, 13.3 ypc). College football home underdogs like Southern Miss that allow 35+ points per game are 17-46 ATS after scoring 37+ points in the last game. Southern Miss is 110th in the nation in yards on offense and 107th in scoring (17.7 PPG), while the defense is 110th in yards given up (433 per game) and 126th in points surrendered (43.7 per game). And CFB home teams like the Golden Eagles that are getting outscored on average by double-digits are 13-39 ATS after scoring 37+ points in the previous contest. Play Texas State.

This is the first road game for Southern Miss and the Golden Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf. Southern Miss got smacked around by an SEC team in the opener (Mississippi State) and plays at Nebraska next week, so this Conference USA team is taking a beating because of an early tough schedule. Southern Miss has gone 0–12 in 2012 to 1–11 in 2013 and 3–9 in 2014. Last year the team ranked ninth in the league in total defense, #10 in rushing defense and #11 in scoring defense. USM also ranked last in the league in turnover margin, losing 26 and gaining only 16. Southern Miss is off a blowout win over a cupcake and note that the UNDER is 4-1 after the Golden Eagles win by more than 20 points. They face an up-and-coming Texas State Bobcats offense that is clicking, ranked #39 in the nation on offense, averaging 474.5 yards per game. The Bobcats have great balance averaging 224 yards rushing and 250.5 yards passing this season. Texas State is 7-2 ATS in Conference USA clashes and on a 7-1 ATS run overall, undervalued by oddsmakers. They have a ground attack that can control the clock and this total is too high. Take Texas State and the UNDER.