Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs South Florida Bulls

South Florida is just 2-9. Things might have been different if the injury bug wasn't biting them in key places all season. Marcus Shaw has been limited by injuries but is now healthy, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season. QB Mike White has moved the offense a lot better of late and his 6.5 yards per attempt is better than the other three the Bulls have tried at QB. The Bulls have beaten Cincinnati, and played Central Florida to within a FG on the road. This team has far from quit. Rutgers looked like a certain Bowl team after their 4-1 start but they have gone 1-5 in their last six. This is a team that started by out-scoring opponents 200-138 through five games, but have since been out-scored 94-214. They have accounted for 18 INTs on the season, and the offense has produced very little in the second half of the season with just 15.7 points per game. The Scarlet Knights are flooded with negative momentum, and are now 0-7 ATS following a loss. South Florida has been competitive on the road at 4-0 ATS in their last four, and are in this one all the way. Bulls head coach Willie Taggart is 18-2 ATS in all games he has coached as a road underdog. Take the points and play on South Florida.

There isn't a lot of wiggle room in this one for South Florida as the total is extremely low at 42 and they are a double-digit favorite. The Bulls are gaining a lot of favor here because they beat Cincinnati on the road, who everyone sees as a tough team, but the reality is Cincinnati is an average team and the Bulls played their best game of the season. They were held to 15 total points in their previous two Big East contests and were out gained by a very weak Western Kentucky team that has lost at the line of scrimmage by over 250 yards a game vs BCS conference schools the last couple years. Rutgers was beaten soundly by Pittsburgh, the Big East's best team, so there is a spike in the line here based on each teams last game. Rutgers is a solid defensive team and has improved on offense with the insertion of Freshman Chas Dodd (check status). They have also risen tall on the road as a dog where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26, while the Bulls are cashing few vs a team with a winning record at 6-16 ATS in their last 22. I like Rutgers here.

Both of these teams enter this one at 6-2 on the season, but Rutgers' record should have an asterisk by it. The Scarlet Knights have beaten Florida International, Howard and Texas Southern, along with Army for four of the six wins. Despite the soft schedule, the Rutgers offense ranks just No. 87 out of 120 teams. The only two challenges to their offense have been Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. In both those games, the Knights could not move the ball and did not top the 300 yard mark on offense. I would expect the top 25 defense of the Bulls to force similar problems for Rutgers here. The Bulls have played five games against teams that don't generate much offensively, and have held them to a combined 47 points - that's a very stingy 9.4 per game. It will be tough for Rutgers to top the 20-point mark in this one. Here is an amazing stat: The Bulls are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 games when holding their opponent to 20 points or less and in the only loss, they won ATS! That tells me that getting points here is the way to go.