Penn State Nittany Lions vs Temple Owls Point Spread Picks

Penn State was in complete control from the jump, blanking Marshall 45-0 in an opener that never let the Thundering Herd get anything going, and the Nittany Lions come in ranked in the top twenty. Temple held up its own end at home, beating Rhode Island 38-14 while playing a ball-control style that ate clock. This is precisely the profile I want on a mid-range total: a team fresh off a shutout win pairing with an opponent that just won by controlling time of possession rather than trading scores. Penn State is a massive favorite here and has no reason to abandon a run-heavy, clock-eating approach once this one gets comfortable, while Temple's own offense showed last week it wants to grind rather than sling it around. Blowouts against overmatched competition don't automatically push these numbers over; more often they cap them once the backups take the field. I expect Penn State to control this one thoroughly without needing to keep the offense in scoring mode into the fourth quarter. The UNDER is the play, and I like it to come in comfortably. 

There has been one constant over the years at Penn State - this has almost always been a defense-first team. So much so that the Nittany Lions have allowed a stingy 17.9 points per game in their last 428 games! It is hard to imagine this Temple team even getting to 17, as these clubs have met 25 times, with Penn State 25-0 SU, allowing fewer than 10 points per game vs. the Owls. The Owls allowed just 17.5 points per game last year, and should be strong once again on that side of the ball. Not only does Penn Stave have a strong defensive historical resume, but it starts early, as they own a 36-16 mark to the UNDER in their last 52 September games. Temple has turned in a 6-1 mark to the UNDER vs. the Big-10 and a September UNDER run of 11-4 of their own. This one stays UNDER.

It is always a dangerous situation to play on a double-digit favorite that has shown limited ability to score. The Nitany Lions can sure play defense, but they are just 5-4 because the offense is just not capable enough to get separation in games. They have averaged just 13 points per game in their last five, and are now favored in this contest by almost all of that average. This is also a breather game against a team that will be hungrier for a win against an in-state rival. Temple has some impressive wins as they have beaten a good Memphis team, and East Carolina as well as Vanderbilt -  another offensively challenged team. They also own a 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven vs. a winning team. Penn State's futile offense has been somewhat predictable as they are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 after passing for less than 170 yards in their previous game. This one will be closer than it looks, so make the play on Temple and the points.