Penn State Nittany Lions vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Point Spread Picks

Penn State lost in the final seconds to Indiana, but that game was a springboard for interim coach Terry Smith and the Nittany Lions to regain their footing, and they went on to win their next two games against Michigan State and Nebraska. Smith desperately wants to keep the job next yea,r giving him and his players special incentive along with becoming bowl-eligible with a victory over Rutgers. Penn State has won and covered the past four meetings. Through all the adversity this season, the Nittany Lions' defense still is #25 in the country in total yards allowed and #17 in pass defense. Conversely, Rutgers' defense is #119, allowing 425.9 yards per game, and #129, allowing 201.7 yards per game rushing. The Scarlet Knights come off a 42-9 rout by Ohio State with only 147 total offense yards. Rutgers is 1-4 ATS after accumulating fewer than 275 yards in their previous game. Take Penn State. 

Rutgers has a winning record with a strong defense that keeps it in games. Rutgers is 17th in the nation in total yards allowed and 23rd in points given up (20 per game allowed). Coach Greg Schiano is 33-17 ATS as a road underdog. Penn State had a huge showdown with rival Michigan last week at home and got stuffed in a 24-15 loss. The offense averages just 4.2 yards per carry (77th in the nation) and Michigan ran through their defense for 227 rushing yards. Penn State is 31-52 ATS against defenses that allow 310 or fewer total yards per game and 1-9 ATS at home off a home loss to a Big 10 foe. And coach James Franklin is 9-23 ATS following a defeat. Play Rutgers. 

Penn State's had a great season, losing only to No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State. The offense has excellent balance behind senior QB Sean Clifford (17 TDs, 7 INTs) and RB Nicholas Singleton (801 yards, 6.5 ypc), while the defense is 22nd in total yards allowed and on third-down, plus 13th in points given up (19 pg). Penn State is 33-13 ATS after a Big 10 victory, as well as 22-12 ATS off a win by 21+ points. Rutgers started 3-0 last year but lost eight of its final 10. The same thing is taking place again, starting 3-0 but they've now dropped six of seven. A trio of quarterbacks has combined to throw more interceptions (13) than TDs (9). Rutgers is 6-20 ATS at home after having lost four out of five, plus 22-38 ATS at home after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in the last contest. The Nittany Lions won 28-0 last year with an edge in yards 407-160 and this looks like a similar mismatch. Play Penn State. 

Rutgers isn't getting any respect with this betting line. They were a 20-point dog at Michigan and lost 20-13. Rutgers has a terrific coach in Greg Schiano (52-31 ATS as a dog) with a good shot at a bowl for the first time since 2014. The Rutgers defense is fourth nationally on third down (28.8 percent) and has allowed just 10 points in the fourth quarter all season. The special teams are also strong, No. 1 in the nation in punting (45.7 yards per punt). Rutgers has won six of its last nine road contests, on a 9-1 spread run on the road, 25-12 ATS away from home after having won two out of three. They come off a 38-3 win at Indiana as an underdog. Penn State is off an emotional game, losing 21-17 on a late TD in a showdown with Michigan. It was their fourth loss in five games, including a 20-18 defeat to Illinois as a 24-point favorite. Penn State is 6-19 ATS off a Big 10 loss, as well as 2-11 ATS at home off a defeat. Play Rutgers.