Wake Forest at Louisville

Both of these offenses have scored 38 or more in five of their combined six games, and I've had the total UNDER on each of these teams in the last two weeks and gotten run over both times, so I'm not pretending this is an easy call. What's different here is where it's being played. Louisville's defense has been a different team at home, allowing an average in the low 20s across its two games at L&N Stadium against a group that includes an ACC offense in SMU, with the one bad number coming on the road at Ole Miss. Wake Forest is walking into a true road environment against a team pushing for the ACC championship game, and its own offense came back to earth in its last outing, its lowest point total of the season. Two efficient passing attacks can still turn into a lower-scoring afternoon when one defense tightens up at home, and the other offense is coming off its quietest game. Go with the UNDER today.