Texas-San Antonio at Texas State

Texas State’s defense is coming off a nightmare, gashed for 59 points in a road loss to Texas that exposed real issues up front. UTSA handled its own business at home, beating UT Rio Grande Valley 45-16 in a game that didn’t require the offense to do anything spectacular. A home team with a defense this exposed, fresh off a game that got away from it, is exactly the profile I look to fade on the spread, and UTSA gets a number here that’s more generous than the class gap probably calls for. Several separate systems back UTSA on this side, and the throughline across them is the same: a road team playing with some momentum lined up against a home team that just got its own defense picked apart by a real offense. Texas State still has more than enough talent to win this game outright, but covering a number this size right after what just happened to that defense is a much tougher ask, and nothing about last week’s performance suggests the Bobcats have that fixed in a week. Take the points with UTSA, and I expect this one to still be well within reach in the fourth quarter.