Texas State at San Diego State

I had the OVER on Texas State last week against Incarnate Word, and it cashed in a 63-10 game. Texas State is 2-2, and San Diego State is 1-3; the Aztecs' three losses have come by 18, 13, and 25 points against FBS opponents. San Diego State scored 10 at UCLA, 13 against James Madison and 16 at Toledo. Texas State has scored 49 and 63 in its last two games and ran for 337 and 338 yards, and San Diego State's defense has allowed 214, 171 and 210 rushing yards to its three FBS opponents. The Aztecs' passing game offers no way out of that: it completed 6 of 17 passes for 45 yards at UCLA. Texas State's defense is the case for San Diego State. It has allowed 59 to Texas, 31 to UTSA, and 35 to North Texas, but the Aztecs have not scored more than 16 against an FBS opponent. Lay the points with Texas State.