Tarleton State at Bowling Green

Bowling Green's offense was one of the least productive in the country a year ago, scoring right around 20 points a game in a 4-8 season under Eddie George, and that number is the anchor for this total regardless of what Tarleton State brings across the field. Tarleton State arrives with a strong résumé of its own, a 12-2 season and well over 40 points a game at its level, but this is a jump from the FCS ranks to a true FBS test, and offenses built around a specific level of speed and competition don't always transfer that production immediately against tougher, faster defenses. Bowling Green's own defense allowed just over 24 points a game last season, not dominant, but capable of keeping a struggling opponent's offense from running away with the game either. Add in the usual first-game rust that shows up on both sidelines in a true season opener, and the more likely path here is a game where Bowling Green's stagnant offense keeps the total in check even if Tarleton State moves the ball with some success. The number needs a full transfer of last year's FCS production to hit, and that's asking a lot in Week 1. Take the UNDER this afternoon.