Stonehill at Ohio

Ohio's defense has allowed at least 27 points in every game it's played this year, including 41 to South Alabama and 49 to Nebraska, and that's against real FBS competition, not an FCS team making its first trip to Athens. This isn't a defense priced to suddenly find a shutout in it just because the opponent is overmatched on paper. Stonehill has already shown it can move the ball when the matchup allows for it, hanging 35 on New Hampshire two weeks ago, and an Ohio staff sitting at 1-2 has every reason to keep its starters in and its foot down rather than play this conservatively once it's ahead, building the kind of confidence and clean tape a team under pressure needs. Ohio's own offense has scored at least 21 in every game and put up 36 last week, more than enough to clear its half of tonight's number without needing the defense to cooperate. Between Ohio's leaky defense and its own capable offense, and Stonehill already showing flashes of moving the ball against lesser competition, this total doesn't need a shootout to get there; it just needs Ohio to keep playing the way it has all season. I had Stonehill's total OVER last week against Massachusetts, and it cleared by half a point in a game the Skyhawks still lost. This Ohio defense has been even more generous than that one. Take the OVER as my CFB Game of the Week.