South Florida at Army

Army's total last week against Bryant cashed the OVER in a 59-3 win that turned into a complete track meet. That result says more about Bryant than it does about what Army's offense does against a real opponent, and this week is a legitimate step up. South Florida is walking in off a 19-9 win over Florida International that was hardly explosive, an offense that managed under twenty points against Group of Five competition. Army's approach, built around a ball-control running attack, doesn't change against a tougher opponent, and a more competitive game means fewer possessions for both sides, not more scoring. Last week's number was blown up by a defenseless FCS opponent that let Army do whatever it wanted; South Florida is an actual American Conference team that should make Army work for every yard. I expect a grinding, lower-scoring game that never resembles what happened last week. The UNDER is my play here.