San Jose State at USC

USC opens as a top-15 team at home, and this is about as lopsided a season opener as the Trojans will play all year: a matchup against a San Jose State team that managed just 22.2 points a game a year ago against a far softer slate than the one Lincoln Riley is about to throw at it. Season openers carry their own kind of unpredictability. Both sides are breaking in new starters, new fronts, and new timing, and history says the sloppiness costs points more often than it adds them, especially early. This is also a game USC can put away early, and Riley has shown no interest in running up the score once a game is decided, meaning the back half is likely to feature backups working through the same first-game rust the starters showed at the start. San Jose State allowed 28.6 points a game against a much softer schedule last season, but its offense is the bigger issue here, a unit that managed only 22.2 points a night in 2025 and now has to find a rhythm against a far superior roster in front of a hostile crowd. The UNDER is my play this afternoon.