Samford at UAB

I had the OVER in UAB's opener at Illinois, and it cashed in a 42-23 game. The Blazers' three games since finished with 46, 35, and 44 total points, which looks like a pattern until you check what the other sideline did. UL Monroe ran the ball 43 times, Louisiana 53, and Navy 58, and every carry kept the clock moving. Samford is a different kind of opponent. The Bulldogs have thrown 151 passes in four games, 50 of them in the 45-19 loss at Tennessee Tech, a 64-point game, and they have missed on 60 of them. UAB's four opponents have thrown 69 passes combined and missed on 28. Quarterback Gabarri Johnson went 22 of 26 in last week's 45-7 win over VMI, and Samford has scored at least 18 in three of its four games. UAB's defense has given up 20 or more in every game, including 42 to Illinois. Samford's defense allowed 394 yards to North Alabama, 334 to Southern Illinois, and 409 to Tennessee Tech, and those three ran for 165, 181, and 180 yards. UAB ran for 266 yards on 52 carries against UL Monroe, so the ground game has a path to points. UAB has not scored more than 26 in any game this season, and a lopsided score can run the clock out on itself. Samford's passing game works against that, because a team throwing 50 times in a loss keeps the snaps coming and the scoreboard moving. Take the OVER as my CFB Total of the Month.