Southern Miss at Troy

Troy is 2-2 and has one win over an FBS opponent, a three-point escape against Sam Houston in the opener. Its other win came against FCS Alabama State by 17, and its two losses to Missouri and Utah State came with the offense stuck at 17 and 10 points and five turnovers between them. Troy leans on the run under a new offensive coordinator, and Southern Miss is the kind of defense that invites it, having given up 343 rushing yards to Auburn and 281 to Tulane. That sets up a game Troy leads and Southern Miss never leaves. Landry Lyddy threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover in the three-point loss at Tulane, and Southern Miss has put up 401 yards in each of its last two games with an offense that says it wants to play fast. When Troy runs on this defense, it will score, and when it scores, Southern Miss can answer through the air, which keeps the margin short and still pushes the score up. Southern Miss games have produced 52, 51, 68 and 45 points, and the total has climbed since it opened. I expect Troy to lead most of the night, but its only win by more than a field goal came against an FCS team, and a 2-2 team coming off two straight losses hasn't shown it can put an FBS opponent away. Take Southern Miss with the points and the OVER tonight.