Oregon vs. Indiana

Indiana's breakthrough game was its 30-20 win at Oregon on Oct. 11, which proved to the naysayers that the Hoosiers could win the big games. They outgained the Ducks 326-267, and Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza threw for 215 yards and a TD with one interception. There's no reason to think Indiana can't repeat that performance, as it has outscored opponents by nearly 30 points per game since that matchup. Nine of the Hoosiers' 14 wins have come by at least 20 points, seven by 30 or more. Oregon has been more of a running team than in the recent past, and Indiana is #2 in the country in rushing defense, allowing 73.7 yards per game. The Hoosiers are #18 in pass defense, yielding 178.9 yards per game. The Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games, including getting rolled over by Ohio State 41-21 last year. Oregon is also 3-7 ATS in its past 10 neutral-site games. Indiana is #7 in total offense yards per game (468.1), and despite the attention on Mendoza, the Hoosiers also can run the ball. They are #11 with 220.7 yards rushing per game. Roman Hemby has 1,007 yards on 5.20 per carry, and Kaelon Black has totaled 898 yards on 5.70 per attempt, including 99 on 15 carries when the Hoosiers buried Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals. The Hoosiers are the superior team on both sides of the ball. Take Indiana.