Notre Dame at Purdue

Purdue's last three games have finished with 63, 74, and 90 combined points, but that's a function of the Boilermakers' defense getting torched, not proof of what happens against a unit like Notre Dame's. The Irish have allowed 10 points or fewer in two of their three games, including a Big Ten defense holding Michigan State to just 10, and that's the level of competition Purdue actually plays at. I had Wake Forest's total UNDER against Purdue two weeks ago, and it blew past the number, but Wake's defense isn't anything like what's showing up in South Bend. Notre Dame is favored by a wide margin here, and games like that tend to see the loser's offense stall out entirely once the game gets out of hand, capping the total even as the favorite keeps its own number moving. Purdue's defense has been generous all year, but Notre Dame's has been the opposite, and that's the side of the ball that decides this one. The UNDER is the play.