Northern Illinois at Iowa

Iowa's offense put up nearly 30 points a game a year ago on its way to a 9-4 season and a bowl win over Vanderbilt, and that number alone gets this total most of the way to the posted line without any help from the other sideline. Northern Illinois enters in a state of real transition, with Thomas Hammock gone to an NFL staff job and Rob Harley running the program on an interim basis for his first game in charge, the kind of change that tends to show up as shaky execution on defense before it shows up as improvement. That defense already allowed better than 24 points a game last season, and there's little reason to expect a cleaner performance in Week 1 under new leadership. Northern Illinois' own offense managed just over 17 points a game a year ago, modest, but enough on its own to tip this total the rest of the way if Kirk Ferentz's group does what it did throughout last season. Iowa's defense gets the attention, but this number is set low enough that it doesn't take much from either side to push it past the posted total. Bet this one to go OVER the total.