North Dakota State at Air Force

I had North Dakota State's total two weeks ago against Jacksonville State, and it wasn't close: a 33-7 win that finished well under the number. The Bison have only built on that since, following it up with a 38-0 shutout of Fordham that showed the same identity: a ball-control offense and a defense that doesn't let anybody get comfortable. Air Force plays the exact same brand of football, having just blanked Duquesne 34-0 behind a run-heavy attack that chews clock rather than scores in bunches. When both teams are built to control time of possession, and neither has faced a real test yet, mid-range totals like this one are worth trusting, and two programs that just posted shutouts of their own are a textbook fit for that pattern. Neither offense figures to abandon what's working, and a low-possession game between two ball-control teams caps scoring no matter how good either defense actually is. Go with the UNDER.