New Mexico State at Florida State

Florida State opens at home as one of the largest favorites on the board, and system data going back to 2009 shows that mega-favorites in this range, including season openers with a total under 58, have a real history of going OVER that number, not UNDER it. New Mexico State had one of the worst scoring defenses in Conference USA last season, allowing 26.3 points per game, and that unit is now walking into a game in which Florida State is trying to answer questions after a 5-7 season that fell well short of preseason expectations. Blowouts like this one rarely turn into clock-killing exercises. The favorite scores fast and often in the first half to answer any doubts, then keeps the offense rolling with backups in the second half against a defense that was already struggling to get stops against far better competition than it faces here. The betting market backs this up, with a disproportionate share of the money on this total sitting on the OVER relative to the ticket count, the kind of split that shows where the more informed side of the market has landed. Take the OVER tonight.