North Carolina Central at East Carolina

East Carolina finally broke a two-game skid last week with a 20-17 comeback at Old Dominion, but the story behind that win was a 67-yard pick-six from defensive back Ayden Duncanson, not an offense that's found itself. The Pirates are averaging under 300 total yards a game and converting barely one in seven third downs, with the quarterback job still split between Mitch Griffis and Emory Williams. That's the offense hosting a North Carolina Central defense that just gave up 44 points to Gardner-Webb, its worst outing of the season and the second straight game it's allowed at least 22. On the other side, North Carolina Central leans almost entirely on Plez Lawrence, who's averaging better than seven yards a carry and already has 323 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the year, more than enough to keep pace and put points on the board even against a heavy favorite. East Carolina's own defense has allowed at least 27 points in two of its three games, including 48 to Alabama in the opener, so neither side here is playing defense at a level that suggests this stays buttoned up. This is East Carolina's only in-state FBS-FCS matchup of the year, a rivalry that hasn't been renewed since a 52-7 East Carolina win back in 2014, but this is a different East Carolina team, one that needs a full four quarters and a mispriced defense to get where the market thinks it's going. North Carolina Central won't out-execute the Pirates for a full game, but its running game and East Carolina's own defensive leaks give this total a real path, even with an offense as inconsistent as the Pirates' pushing the number. Take the OVER as my CFB Game of the Month.