Liberty University at James Madison

James Madison scored better than 37 points per game a year ago, but that production belonged to Bob Chesney's system, and Chesney is gone to UCLA after a 12-2 season. Billy Napier now takes over, arriving after his run at Florida, and installing a new offense from scratch in a true season opener is a different proposition than picking up where a proven system left off. New coaching staffs tend to look tighter and more conservative in Week 1 than their personnel would suggest, simply because the calls, protections, and timing haven't been tested in a real game yet. Liberty isn't the kind of opponent that forces a shootout regardless. Jamey Chadwell's group scored and allowed right around 26 points a game last season, middling production on both sides that doesn't push a total higher on its own. With James Madison's offense working through a full coaching transition and Liberty bringing modest firepower rather than a high-scoring attack of its own, the pieces suggest a game that remains more controlled than explosive. The number banks on JMU picking up right where last year left off, and that's a heavier assumption than it looks with a new staff calling the plays. The UNDER is the play this afternoon.