I had the UNDER on USC's opener last week, and it blew through the number in a hurry, with the Trojans piling up 42 points in a track meet that finished with 68 combined. That offense clearly didn't need a second game to find its rhythm, and Lincoln Riley's group now gets a Fresno State defense that allowed nearly 19 points a game last season, respectable, but not built to slow down what USC just showed. Fresno State's own offense was plenty capable in Matt Entz's group last year, averaging better than 25 points a game and closing the season with a bowl win, and USC's defense finished 2025 in the middle of the pack rather than as a shutdown unit. Both sides have enough firepower to keep the scoreboard moving, and USC in particular looked like a team that plans to score early and keep scoring rather than sit on a lead once it's built one. The betting market has leaned toward the OVER here too, with the heavier money on that side. Between what USC just put on tape and a Fresno State offense that isn't going away quietly, this total has real momentum behind it. Take the OVER.
This Pro Pick was released to clients on September 03, 2026 at 1:26PM ET.
Fresno State at USC
September 4, 2026
1 unit on Game Total OVER 51.5 -106 (risk 1 to return 1.94)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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