East Tennessee State at North Carolina

North Carolina needed a defensive stand and two field goals to get past TCU 15-10 in the opener, and that's the number that matters here: an offense that finished 118th nationally in scoring last year showed signs of life under new coordinator Bobby Petrino and Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr., but still only found the end zone once in a rainy, mistake-filled slog. That's not the version of this offense that shows up against a step down in competition. East Tennessee State just gave up 49 points to Campbell, an FCS peer, in a track meet where the Bucs racked up 528 yards of their own and still lost by chucking the ball 41 times. That's a defense that can't get stops and an offense that scores in bunches when given the chance, and neither trait is going away against a home team fielding a full FBS roster of speed and size. UNC blew out Richmond 41-6 a year ago with a far worse offense than this one, and my numbers say that alone flirts with tonight's total. Add a more explosive Tar Heel attack, a leaky Buccaneer defense, and a Buccaneer offense capable of hanging points even in a loss, and I make 51.5 too light for a game shaping up as a comfortable Carolina win with points on both sides of the ledger. We're banking on both offenses finding the end zone plenty this afternoon. Take the OVER.