Bowling Green at Miami Ohio

I had the OVER in Bowling Green's game at Iowa State two weeks ago, and it cashed in a 55-7 game. Bowling Green's seven points that day fit a pattern, and it is the problem with this ticket: the Falcons have scored 13, 7, 7 and 6 points and average 8.25 a game. Miami (Ohio)'s defense is the reason I am on both legs anyway. The RedHawks have allowed 59 points at Pittsburgh, 35 at Cincinnati and 21 to UConn, and they gave up 480 passing yards at Pittsburgh. Their last two FBS games finished within 4 and 3 points, a loss at Cincinnati and a win over UConn, and each of their four games this season has finished above the posted total, with totals of 73, 52, 66 and 45. Bowling Green's three FBS games came against Nebraska, Iowa State and South Florida, and it lost to South Florida by 8 at home while holding the Bulls to 14. Both legs run through that Miami (Ohio) defense: it plays high-scoring games, and the recent ones have stayed close. Take Bowling Green on the spread and the OVER this afternoon.