Boston College at Cincinnati

Boston College's offense was one of the least effective in the country a year ago, scoring just over 25 points per game in a 2-10 season under Bill O'Brien, and that number didn't climb much against a Cincinnati defense that allowed under 25 points per game itself. Scott Satterfield is entering his fourth season running the program, a veteran staff with an established identity rather than one installing something new, and a heavy favorite that stable doesn't need to air the ball out against an overmatched opponent to win comfortably. Cincinnati's offense was productive last year at nearly 32 points a game, but the more likely path here is a program leaning on the ground game and protecting its roster early in the year rather than opening up the passing attack against a defense that gave up nearly 33 points a game of its own. Boston College simply doesn't have the firepower to force a track meet, and an established staff with nothing to prove against this level of opponent tends to play conservatively rather than run up the score. This total depends more on Boston College keeping pace than on Cincinnati's ceiling, and last year's tape says that isn't walking through the door. This one stays UNDER the number.