Oregon Ducks vs Washington State Cougars Point Spread Picks

Washington State is off a blowout loss and is a huge underdog, but this is a good team. They have a winning record overall and QB Cameron Ward (14 TDs, 3 INTs) leads a passing attack that is 16th in the nation in yards (308.4 per game) while averaging 28.4 points. Washington State is 49-31 ATS after being outrushed by 125+ yards. Oregon is in a let-down spot after having its unbeaten season come crashing down last week in a tough 36-33 loss to Washington. The Ducks are 20-37 ATS off a road loss. These teams played a thriller last year, a 44-41 Oregon win as Washington State's Ward threw for 375 yards. This also looks like a close one and the Cougars are 38-19 ATS against teams that average 200+ yards rushing. Play Washington State. 

A couple of outliers here to discuss with this 2-1 Oregon team. They were a lot more over-matched vs Georgia than anyone thought. They were humiliated 49-3. Oregon then hung a 70 on E. Washington and managed 41 vs BYU. The BYU game was a lot closer than the final score, and Washington has been very strong defensively. The Oregon offense has been somewhat above average in total, but the Washington St. defense has played three offensive opponents that average 8.6 yards per play and has held them to 6.6 yards per play. The result is the Cougars are allowing fewer than 13 PPG. Washington St. has turned the ball over too much and the offense has struggled, as the defense is their calling card. I expect this one to play in the high 40s to maybe low 50s, and will make the play on the UNDER.

Washington State has only played three road games with the offense averaging 22.6 points. They'll need a lot more than that against high-flying Oregon. College football road dogs like Washington State that are off of a conference upset win as an underdog of 6-points or more are 22-57 ATS against an opponent off a double-digit road win. Oregon has won 17 in a row at home and is the second-highest ranked one-loss team behind No. 2 Alabama. The Ducks have three running backs with over 400 yards anchored by Travis Dye (820 yards, 6.1 yards per carry). The offense is #25 in the country averaging 35 points and seventh in third-down conversion percentage (50.0%). Oregon is outscoring opponents at home by a 39-19 average. The Ducks are also 34-19 ATS after consecutive Pac 12 wins by 10+ points and won last year's meeting at WSU, 43-29, with 312 yards passing and 269 yards rushing. Play Oregon.