Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans Point Spread Picks

Based on their speed and match-up edges in the trenches, Oregon deserves to be this big of a home favorite against USC. Give a check mark to USC with its outstanding wide receivers. Still, the Ducks are superior on both the offensive and defensive lines, have a more potent running attack, an exceptional quarterback in Dante Moore, and one of the best tight ends in the country with Kenyon Sadiq. Oregon's lone defeat this season was to second-ranked Indiana. USC can be forgiven for losing to Notre Dame. What is harder to fathom is that the Trojans are also losing to Illinois. Oregon averages 39 points a game. USC averages 38 points per contest. The difference is defense: the Ducks yield the sixth-fewest points per game at 13.7, rank first in pass defense, and are third in fewest yards given up per game. The Trojans can't match that. They surrender 21.7 points a game, rank 63rd in run defense, 41st in pass defense, and are 47th in fewest yards allowed a game. Take Oregon. 

USC is 5-2 in the Pac-12 and leads the conference in scoring. In fact, the Trojans are No. 1 in the nation in scoring (45.5 points per game) behind reigning Heisman Trophy-winning QB Caleb Williams (28 TDs, 4 INTs). The offense is also seventh in yards (485.5 per game) and third in passing (326.7). Oregon's pass defense is 50th in the country. You have to wonder how the Ducks will handle the late-season pressure to finish strong. They failed that test last year, starting 8-1, but then losing to Washington (37-24) in November as a 12-point favorite along with a loss to Oregon State (38-34). They finished 2022 going 2-2, including a narrow 28-27 bowl win over North Carolina as a 13-point favorite getting a TD in the final seconds. An upset by the No. 1 scoring offense in the country wouldn't be a shock. Back USC on the moneyline. 

Oregon has a winning record and has had two weeks to prepare for the Pac 12 title tilt after their game with Washington was canceled. Oregon has the talent to beat anyone in the Pac-12. QB Tyler Shough (11 TDs, 4 INTs) is the Pac 12's top-rated passer, leading an offense that strikes for 467 yards, 34.2 points per game. While Oregon is rested, USC is playing on short rest for the second straight week. They come off a rivalry game, squeezing by UCLA, 43-38, after trailing by 18 points. The Trojans may be without leading rusher Vavae Malepeai, who sprained his knee against UCLA. USC's rushing attack has been inconsistent all season and the defense is thin at linebacker, something Oregon can exploit. Oregon crushed USC in Los Angeles last year, 56-24, allowing 3.6 yards per rush while picking off three passes. The wagering value is on the rested and talented underdog to win the game again. Back Oregon on the moneyline.

USC is a huge favorite even though the records of the two teams are separated by just two games. Oregon has a dynamite offense at #16 in the nation in scoring (40.5 points per game) with outstanding balance as they average 271 yards passing at 248 rushing. That ground attack is #16 in the nation while two QBs have combined for 20 TDs to four picks. The Ducks are on a 22-7-1 ATS run on the road, plus 21-5 ATS on natural grass. They've scored 49 and 54 points the last two games, but that was against weak defenses. The Trojans have ballhawks in the secondary with Iman Marshall, Adoree Jackson and Leon McQuay III. USC is 9-1-1 UNDER the total on grass, as well as 18-7-1 UNDER in Pac-12 play. USC is a big favorite, but has stumbled three times in  losing to Alabama, Stanford and Utah. The Trojans are 10-26 ATS after a victory, plus 5-17 ATS after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game. The Ducks have been on the winning side of the scoreboard the last two times they've met the Trojans and this shapes up as a close one with more defense than oddsmakers expect. Play Oregon and the UNDER.