Oklahoma Sooners vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Point Spread Picks

Oklahoma senior QB Dillon Gabriel (6 TDs, no picks) leads an offense that is 10th in the nation in yards (503.5 per game) and third in points (50.5 per game). The Sooners have a chip on their shoulder after losing some close games last year to finish 6-7. College football road favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like the Sooners after back-to-back victories by 17+ points are 32-8 ATS when facing a team that scored 3 or fewer points in the first half of the last game. Tulsa is in a difficult situational and matchup spot. They lost at Washington of the Pac 12 last week, 43-10, surrendering 563 yards (454 passing). QB Braylon Braxton (0 TDs, 2 INTs) is still battling an ankle injury so freshman QB Cardell Williams has played the most. And Tulsa is 10-25 ATS at home after playing two straight non-conference tilts. Play Oklahoma. 

First glance at this Tulsa program shows their best success in decades, and when the line tops the 30-point mark it makes it seem like a number that they can touch. From 2007-12, this Tulsa team won 10 or more games four times. The bad news is that they won 10 or more games just two other times since 1980. The reality is that they have not won more than three games in the last two years. Despite their 2-0 start this year, they are still a wobbly program that is going to struggle, especially vs. a team such as Oklahoma. If anything points to the fact that this number, as big as it looks, is reasonable, as they lost to Oklahoma 52-7 last season. The fact is the Sooners played this team during their tenure as a 10+ win team, and the last five meetings, which have all taken place since 2007, the Sooners have beaten them by a combined score of 257-62. That is almost 40 points per game. The Sooners will add to that in this one with another easy win and cover. Lay the points on Oklahoma.

After the Sooners' lack of offense in a 16-7 win vs. West Virginia last week, many will wonder how they can manage enough points to cover this big number. Well the answer might lie in the fact that the Golden Hurricane gave up 34 points to Bowling Green, and 27 to Colorado State. Those teams combined to average 22 points per game a year ago. The problem for Tulsa is going to be finding the end zone at all, as they managed just 7 points against Bowling Green. Their offense lacks firepower, while the defense isn't ready to handle the resulting workload. The Golden Hurricane has not fared well venturing into the Big-12, where they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven. The Sooners have risen to the occasion after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game by going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 in that situation. Under Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 45-31 ATS after an ATS loss and 12-4 ATS following a game in which his team committed 4+ turnovers. Sooners roll.

We have a big mismatch in the state of Oklahoma. Tulsa has a fine offense, but can they stop anyone? The defense (30.3 points per game allowed) was awful, giving up 450 yards per contest. And this is no ordinary offense they’ll be facing either as Oklahoma is a Top 5 team that is loaded with returning talent and should contend for the national title. The offense will be fine passing the football with junior QB Landry Jones (38 TDs, 12 INTs, 4,718 yds., 65.5% completions) and senior WR Ryan Broyles (1,622 yds.), averaging 37.2 ppg, 138 yards rushing and 343.4 passing. That passing attack was third in the country. The offense loses only RB DeMarco Murray and RT Eric Mensik, so second year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel has plenty of weapons to work. The ground game has sophomore running back Roy Finch (398 yards, 4.7 ypc), who was the No. 2 back before getting injured. They have been boosted by one of the best recruiting classes in the nation for the second straight year, so this offense should be balanced and explosive. Oklahoma is 33-4 SU, 16-13 ATS at home the last five seasons and will roll. Play Oklahoma.