Ohio State Buckeyes vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

Undefeated Ohio State has junior QB Kyle McCord (12 TDs, one INT) and a powerhouse defense that is third in the country on third down (26.88%) and in points given up (10.5 per game), plus fifth in yards allowed (264.5 per contest). The Buckeyes are on an 86-58 ATS run on the road, including 69-46 ATS as a road favorite. They're also 78-48 ATS away after playing a game at home and college football road teams that allow 14 or fewer points per contest are 37-13 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in back-to-back games. Wisconsin QB Tanner Mordecai (hand injury) is still out so backup freshman QB Braedyn Locke (2 TDs, one pick, 51.4% completions) has been forced to step in. The Badgers have failed to cover six in a row versus defenses that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. Ohio State won 52-21 last year with 539 yards (258 rushing) and college football home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points are 47-91 ATS after three straight games forcing one or fewer turnovers. Play Ohio State. 

Everyone knew Ohio State would have an explosive offense, but the defense needed to improve after the Buckeyes gave up 87 points their last two games in 2021. That question appears to have been answered as the Buckeyes have allowed only 14.3 points per game and their first two games went UNDER by an average of nearly 20 points before soaring OVER against the hapless Toledo defense last week. C.J. Stroud was 22 of 27 passing for 367 yards and five TDs and the Buckeyes scored on all six of their first-half possessions. They'll face a much tougher opponent this week as Wisconsin has allowed only 24 points in three games although it lost against the only competitive opponent and that was 17-14 versus Washington State. That doesn't bode well against the Buckeyes, who have beaten the Badgers eight times in a row with a 5-2-1 ATS record. The last three meetings have gone UNDER, including 34-21 in 2021 and Wisconsin is 3-10 ATS its past 13 games versus teams with winning records and the Badgers are 0-5-1 ATS at Columbus. Wisconsin has gone UNDER five of its last seven road games and five of the last seven meetings have stayed UNDER. Take Ohio State and the UNDER.

BIG-10 CHAMPIONSHIP - Unbeaten Ohio State is a big favorite, but staying unbeaten won't be easy against a talented Wisconsin squad. Wisconsin is a Top 10 team led by running back Jonathan Taylor (1,761 yards, 6.3 ypc) and a fierce defense. The Badgers are averaging 38:03 minutes of possession, best in the country. Wisconsin's defense has been dominant, with a huge three-man defensive line. The Badgers have four shutouts and are tops in the nation allowing 7.6 points and 193.9 total yards per contest. Neutral-field underdogs that outrush their opponents by 100+ yards per game are 36-11 ATS. These teams have played close games with five of the last six being decided by seven or fewer points. In the 2017 Big-10 Championship Game, Ohio State pulled out a 27-21 win. Wisconsin is 32-15 ATS against teams averaging 450+ yards per game, plus 23-10-1 ATS after getting 450+ total yards the previous contest. Grab the points on Wisconsin.

This game was looming as a preview of the Big-10 Championship Game but all bets are off now as Wisconsin lost as a 32-point favorite last week to Illinois. That has taken some of the steam out of this game, but Ohio State will view this as a challenge that will test their elite offense vs. a powerful unyielding defense. The Wisconsin defense has opened some eyes with four shutouts already on the season. Ohio State has actually been the better defensive team, allowing no more than 10 points to six straight opponents and fewer than six points per game. The Buckeyes are balanced and lethal on offense as well, and should run away here at home to a comfortable win. Take Ohio State for a Max Play.