Northern Illinois Huskies vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

Northern Illinois has struggled to put enough points on the board to support what has been a solid defense, but the Huskies finally did enough to get a 21-7 win over Ball State to snap a six-game skid. The Huskies racked up 305 yards rushing on 5.4 yards per carry, with Chavon Wright leading the way with 166 yards, and Telly Johnson Jr. added 100 on 15 carries. QB Josh Holst didn't have to do much as he attempted only 11 passes and completed six with a TD and one interception. Northern Illinois has allowed 22.1 points per game, which includes a 38-10 loss to Mississippi State and a 48-21 loss against Ohio. The defense has kept the Huskies in all their other games, which is why they are getting too many points against Toledo. An average of 4.5 points has decided the last two meetings, and NIU looks to avenge last season's 13-6 loss to the Rockets. Toledo comes off a 28-7 loss at Washington State while rushing for only 61 yards on 2.5 per carry. Tucker Gleason completed 26 of 41 for 238 yards and a TD with one pick. Northern Illinois has covered six of seven on the road against the Rockets, who are 4-10 ATS in Week 11. Take the points with Northern Illinois. 

Northern Illinois hasn't shown much offensively this season averaging only 15.8 points and two of its past three have gone UNDER and its opener against Boston College would have stayed UNDER if not for overtime. Rocky Lombardi and Ethan Hampton have combined for 70 of 131 for 719 yards with three TDs and six interceptions for the Huskies and their running game averages just 2.9 yards per carry. Toledo allows 20.3 points per game and owns an experienced secondary while allowing 174.8 passing yards per game. Toledo coach Jason Candle has made great strides with the Rockets in his eight years there and especially on the defensive side. Five of the past eight meetings have stayed UNDER. Take this game to stay UNDER the total.

Toledo comes off its most impressive win of the season defeating Central Michigan 38-17 and covering by 14.5 points and the Rockets went UNDER for the second game in a row. The defense has bounced back in a big way after the Ohio State debacle and the Rockets have allowed only 17 points in each of their last two games. The Chippewas were held to 33 yards rushing on 26 carries while the Rockies piled up 261 yards on 50 carries. DeQuan Finn went 13-for-23 for 186 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and ran for 84 yards. Jacquez Stuart added 122 rushing yards for the Rockets. Northern Illinois lost its fourth straight and this one was in overtime to Ball State. The Huskies ran 57 times for 332 yards, including 230 on 30 carries by Harrison Waylee, but in a losing cause. Eight of the last 10 meetings have gone UNDER, including NIU's 22-20 win in 2021 and the Rockets are out to avenge that loss and they have covered seven of 10 road contests and seven of eight overall against teams with losing records. Toledo has stayed UNDER five straight October games. Two plays on this game: Take Toledo, and then make it a Max Play on the UNDER.

Northern Illinois has lost eight of its last 11 games and has to head out on the road. QB Rocky Lombardi has as many interceptions (5) as TD passes this season and top running back Harrison Waylee (574 yards) may not play because of an injury. The Northern Illinois defense ranks #99 in yards allowed, #111 against the run (199.6 yards allowed on the ground per game). It's homecoming weekend for Toledo with a terrific defense giving up 19 total points the last two games. This is the team that lost in Week 2 at Notre Dame, 32-29, as a +16 dog. Toledo is 28-13 ATS after a victory by 28+ points, as well as 20-6 ATS at home following a win by 21+ points. Toledo ripped Northern Illinois last year, 41-24, and holds all the cards for another one-sided win. Play Toledo.