North Texas Mean Green vs UNLV Rebels Point Spread Picks

I had UNLV as my Game of the Week last week, and both the spread and the total cashed in a 21-6 win at Hawaii. North Texas, meanwhile, was on the wrong end of a 16-52 blowout at Indiana that exposed real problems on both sides of the ball. UNLV bounced back from an opening loss to Memphis with that win at Hawaii, an offense that's been efficient without needing to force the issue, while North Texas just got run off the field by a Big Ten team it had no answer for. A short favorite on the road against a team that just suffered a 36-point loss is exactly the kind of number I want to lay the points on, and nothing about North Texas's performance last week suggests it's ready to hang with a UNLV team playing with this much confidence. I expect UNLV to control this game from the opening series and never let North Texas back into it. Lay the points with UNLV. 

The New Year's Day Bowl games will kick off with UNLV facing North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. It was a long road for UNLV to get here, as they won just two games in each of the last two years. This is their first Bowl game since 2000, while North Texas has not been to a Bowl since 2004. While the story of the 7-5 UNLV season is a good one. The wins they generated weren't so good. The Rebels only beat one team with a winning record on the season, and the record of their opponents that they beat was a combined 24-49. They also had an additional win vs. a non-FBS team. Their record against the five Bowl bound teams was 1-4 and they were outscored 194-119. North Texas finished at 8-4 in their first ever season in Conference USA. The Mean Green played their best football in the last seven games where they were 6-1. They beat 10-3 Rice, 10-2 Ball State, and 8-5 Middle Tennessee by a combined 46 points. North Texas is a strong defensive team, as they rank #18 in the nation in fewest yards allowed. They allowed just a total of 88 points in their last seven games, or 12.6 points per game. The UNLV offense will have their hands full in this one. The Rebels enter at just 12-31-1 ATS in their last 54 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and have also gone 14-6 to the UNDER in their last 20 games after allowing 20 or less. The Mean Green are 9-2 UNDER in their last eleven games as a favorite. This is just a short drive on I-35 for the Mean Green who will have plenty of home support, and their defense is the difference. Take North Texas and the UNDER.