North Texas Mean Green vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Point Spread Picks

North Texas' three games vs. FBS programs saw 238 total points scored — just shy of 80 a contest. Tulsa is going to be an entirely different match up. The Golden Hurricane play slow and there games don't fit well to a total of almost 70 points. Tulsa over the last 7+ years has played 55% of its games to the UNDER. Better than that, and depicting their style, Tulsa is 14-2 to the UNDER over the same period, with a total posted at 66.5 or more points. Make the play UNDER the total.

Regardless of the outcome here both these teams will finish their season next week as both are 3-7 without a possibility of becoming Bowl eligible. Tulsa put up 22 points last week on Tulane and it should have been more as they gained 477 totl yards. The prior week they scored 26 on Charlotte while generating over 400 yards of total offense. North Texas will bring in one of the highest scoring offenses in football, but they also have a defense that has not been able to stop anyone. Their games have averaged 71 total points on the season, but Tulsa has reached the 68 total for this game just once in their last 5 games and that took 69 points by SMU. Neither of these teams have anything to play for and we will see a lot of players getting a look for next year which isn't generally geared for a ton of points. Make the play UNDER the total.

North Texas has fared well moving up from the Sun Belt to C-USA this year. They are 7-4 overall, and have suffered just two losses in the conference. They have won five of their last six, and the effort is spearheaded by the defense. The Mean Green has not allowed any of their last six opponents to score more than 21 points, while they have scored 21 or more in all but one game on the season. So, I like their chances here against Tulsa. It has been a rough year in Tulsa, as the Golden Hurricane has found the win column just three times all season, and are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11. North Texas has gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. North Texas head coach Dan McCarney has consistently handled business vs. losing teams. In his career, his teams are 27-12 ATS vs. losing teams including 18-6 ATS vs. teams in the .250 to .400 range. Lay the points and go with North Texas.

There was once a time where North Texas ruled the Sun belt Conference as this team made four consecutive Bowl appearances from 2001-02 season through the 2004-05 seasons. But, they have not had a winning record since that run and this team has honestly been awful. They have not only had trouble competing in conference, when they take to the road vs. non-conference teams they have been atrocious. Their last 17 games vs. non-conference opponents on the road shows a 1-16 straight up record with the only win vs. Ball State who went winless that entire season. The other 16 games show the not-so-Mean Green getting outscored 137-783 if you can believe that! To put that in perspective if you take the points the Mean Green allowed in their two worst games (77 and 79), those two opponents scored more than the Mean Green did in all 16 games! The margin works out to -40.4 ppg in these games. North Texas is just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Tulsa in a blowout.