North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Tech Hokies Point Spread Picks

A classic matchup of stout defense versus an offense that can put up numbers. Virginia Tech is 2-2 leaning on its defense, including a 27-10 ACC win over Boston College. The defense is allowing 17.5 points per game. The Hokies are 39-21 ATS on the road after playing a non-conference game, plus college football road teams like V-Tech that average 3.25 or fewer yards rushing per carry are 147-82 ATS. North Carolina is all about uptempo on offense, but the defense is terrible surrendering 39.5 points per contest. That included giving up 61 points to Appalachian State and last week's 45-32 loss to Notre Dame as a favorite giving up 576 yards (287 rushing). North Carolina is 2-10 ATS at home against defenses that allowed 90 yards rushing or fewer per game, plus 15-39 ATS after scoring 31+ points in two consecutive contests. With Virginia Tech 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Tar Heels, back the superiors defensive team as a dog. Play Virginia Tech.

North Carolina comes off an 8-4 season and has 10 returning starters on defense, including linebacker Tomon Fox, who is currently tied with Lawrence Taylor on the Tar Heels' career sack list with 21, fifth overall. North Carolina has great expectations this fall with a Heisman candidate, Sam Howell, returning at quarterback. However, the Tar Heels enter this game with several wide receivers either out or questionable. The posted total is inflated due to UNC's 56-45 win last year over the Hokies, who return seven on the defensive side. Virginia Tech lost five of its last seven games in 2020 and coach Justin Fuente is on the hot seat after not making a bowl game last season. The Hokies went UNDER five of their last eight games and averaged only 20.3 points their last four games. Braxton Burmeister is the starting QB for Virginia Tech after starting four games last season and is the only quarterback on the roster with starting experience at the Power 5 level. Take this matchup to stay UNDER the total.

North Carolina has won five in a row dating to last season while averaging 41.8 points, and it comes off a tougher than expected 26-22 win over Boston College as a 14.5-point favorite. The Tarheels look to avenge a 43-41 loss to the Hokies last year in a game that went six overtimes. Virginia Tech features a strong running game that is led by Khalil Herbert, who ran for 212 yards against Duke, and he's averaging 156 yards per game this year. However, North Carolina leads the country in run defense, allowing just 54 yards per game. Also, the Tarheels are #9 in total yards allowed, although they have played only two games. North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell completed 14 of 26 for 225 yards and two touchdowns against Boston College, but the biggest play occurred in the final seconds when Trey Morrison picked off a pass on a 2-point conversion attempt and ran it back for two points for the Tarheels. It was the first game in three weeks for the Tarheels, which explains the nine penalties plus a missed field goal and some mental errors. They'll be better prepared this week, and Virginia Tech is dealing with multiple players who were likely exposed to COVID. The Hokies were missing 21 players last week against Duke. The Tarheels are a small favorite in this matchup. Go with North Carolina on the moneyline.