New Mexico Lobos vs UNLV Rebels Point Spread Picks

New Mexico is 2-2 with excusable losses to Boise State and LSU. They also have a 27-10 win over UTEP as an underdog. The offense is better under dual-threat senior QB Miles Kendrick, a transfer from Kansas, while Rocky Long's 3-3-5 defense is also improved holding Boise to 318 total yards and just 4-of-15 on third down. UNLV is flying high at 3-1 and isn't used to being this big a favorite. The defense has allowed at least 20 points in every game and has given up 25.5 points on average over the last two contests. UNLV is 53-78 ATS after playing a game on the road, plus 3-15 ATS off a road win against a Mountain West rival. The underdog has covered five in a row when these rivals clash and the road team is 5-0 ATS. Play New Mexico. 

UNLV lost its starting quarterback, Armani Rogers, for up to six weeks with a foot injury and sophomore Max Gilliam, a junior college transfer, will replace him. The Rebels had no trouble scoring against the likes of UTEP and Prairie View, but they scored a combined 41 points versus USC and Arkansas State.  UNLV ran 49 times for 310 yards against the Red Wolves two weeks ago, but had virtually no passing game as Rogers was a meager 5-for-21 for 23 yards with three interceptions. The fact that Gilliam was the backup to Rogers is a scary proposition for UNLV fans. Needless to say, the game against Arkansas State went UNDER by nearly 20 points and the Rebels have gone UNDER seven of their last nine conference games going back to 2017. Also, the teams have combined to go 9-1 UNDER their last 10 October games and New Mexico has stayed UNDER five of its last six conference games. New Mexico has played some bad defensive teams this year and in the one game that it didn't, the Lobos scored only 14 points against Wisconsin. Both teams will play a time-consuming running game and this is an inflated posted total. Play the UNDER.

The wheels have come off the season for the New Mexico Lobos. After a promising 3-2 start, the Lobos have not won since September. Five straight losses have left this team out of the Bowl picture at 3-7 on the season. That last win produced 56 points vs. Air Force, but the offense has not even produced 56 points since, and has averaged a woeful 10.2 points per game. If that isn't problematic enough, New Mexico has not defended anyone. The Lobos are allowing 38.3 ppg in their last six, and are losing those games by an average of 22.5 ppg. With a win in this contest UNLV could move to 5-6, and will play their finale vs. rival Nevada for Bowl eligibility. The Rebels have tightened up the "D" over their last three games, allowing 23.3 ppg, compared to 38.8 ppg in their previous five. They will be a live dog for this one, so play on UNLV.