Nevada Wolf Pack vs Utah State Aggies Point Spread Picks

Utah State comes off a winning 2019 campaign and has had a tough schedule to start this season, losing to BYU and San Diego State. They are well-coached under Gary Andersen and the Aggies are 6-2 ATS following a loss, plus 12-3 ATS off one or more straight games OVER the total. Nevada has had an easier schedule, topping Wyoming in OT and beating UNLV, 37-19. Utah State won last year's game in a rout, 36-10, and college football underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points are 149-87 ATS after being outrushed by 125+ yards in their last game. In this conference rivalry tilt, look for a much closer game than oddsmakers expect. Play Utah State. 

Utah State stepped up in class and lost 42-6 to LSU in a game that went UNDER by 24.5 points, but now the Aggies are back to Mountain West Conference action and are big favorites against Nevada. Utah State has gone UNDER its last three games and six of its last eight dating to last season and it managed only 168 total yards of offense against the Tigers. However, now after having a bye week the Aggies go up against a Wolf Pack defense that is #88 in the country in yards allowed and #120 in passing yards allowed. Also, the Wolf Pack is scoring only 23.3 points per game and is #97 in yards gained. Nevada already has suffered blowout losses to Oregon (77-6) and Hawaii (54-3) although it did beat San Jose State last week. Jordan Love leads the Aggies with a 62.5 percent completion rate and six touchdown passes and Jaylen Warren and Gerold Bright combine for 654 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Utah State is 7-1 ATS its last eight home games and the Wolf Pack is 1-4 ATS the last five meetings on the road. The Aggies have gone UNDER their last four conference games and the UNDER is 12-5 in Nevada's last 17 October games and the Wolf Pack has stayed UNDER nine of its last 11 after scoring at least 40 its previous game. Play Utah State as a Max Play and the UNDER.

I can't see much scoring in this one, with cool, windy weather in Reno in the forecast. Utah State is in last place in the Mountain West with a pair of quarterbacks who have combined for 10 TDs, seven picks. Utah State is ranked #91 on offense in total yards. On the road, the Aggies average 17.2 points scoring. They face a Nevada team that also struggles to score, on a 30-12 run UNDER the total, including 17-7 UNDER at home. The Nevada Wolf Pack rank #101 on offense in yards, #114 in the nation in scoring (22.2 ppg). Nevada is also 35-17 UNDER the total when facing losing teams, so look for far more defense than offense. This one finishes UNDER.