NC State Wolfpack vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons

There isn't going to be a bandwagon behind this Wake Forest team this week ast they hit the road to face North Carolina St. The Demon Deacons are now 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games. Going back to last season the Wolfpack is just 3-3 SU in their last six games but 0-6 ATS. Someone has to cover this game. These teams have played competitive games as four of the last seven have been decided by six or fewer points. Many like to side with the home team in these type of games, but how do you trust the Wolfpack who is a woeful 1-8 ATS in their last nine as a home favorite. I like Wake Forest in this one.

This is a huge game for Wake Forest as the Demon Deacons are 4-5 and need to find two wins in their last three games, one of which is at Notre Dame. This is their final home game, and if they are to become Bowl eligible this is a game they must win, so a full effort is likely. Wake is better than their record, but 16 turnovers in their last 7 games has pulled the plug on finding the win column, and they need to clean that up if they want to win. One thing that the turnovers has limited is their ability to score, and I think they are a good candidate to play OVER. NC State is part of the reason why this total is low. The Wolf Pack has managed just 47 total points in its last three games. That was against very strong defensive teams in Miami, Fla., Clemson, and Duke. I think they manage a lot more on Saturday. The last nine meetings between these teams has seen more than 43.5 points scored. I like the OVER in this one.

NC State has only two losses, 31-30 to Miami and 24-10 in September to Mississippi State. This is only the second time all season they've been an underdog, beating Clemson, 27-21, as a +10 dog. QB Devin Leary (25 TDs, 3 INTs) has been outstanding, as has the defense ranked #10 in the nation in points (17.1 pg), #19 in total yards. NC State is 22-6 ATS after getting 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games. The Wake Forest defense has been weak the last two months despite that 8-0 start allowing 34, 37, and 56 points in three close wins. That defense finally broke their unbeaten run giving up 546 yards and 58 points to North Carolina. The Tar Heels ran for 330 yards, 6.3 yards per carry as they went 8-of-16 on third down. You don't find many teams 8-1 on the season ranking #105 in total defense, #78 in points allowed (29.1 pg), but Wake Forest is. NC State won last year's meeting scoring 45 points with 463 yards, including 270 rush yards (5.5 yards per carry), and has a better defense this season. Play NC State. 

Wake Forest got off on the wrong foot, getting wiped out by Clemson, 37-13. The Demon Deacons' offensive line is breaking in three new starters, and they ran for just 37 yards on 34 carries. And the defensive secondary is depleted. Isaiah Essissima, Coby Davis, Caelen Carson, Kenneth Dicks III, and Gavin Holmes all missed the Week 1 matchup. With so many DBs sidelined, safety Nasir Greer started at cornerback. Wake has lost five of its last six games, including three in a row away from home. NC State is healthy as this is its first game. NC State ran for 151.4 yards per game in 2019 and has a terrific running attack returning behind Ricky Person, Zonovan Knight, and Jordan Houston. When healthy early last season, the Wolfpack started 4-2 straight up, including 3-0 at home. The wagering value is on the home team to win the game against the banged-up visitors. Play NC State on the moneyline.