NC State Wolfpack vs Virginia Tech Hokies Point Spread Picks

Virginia Tech's interim head coach Philip Montgomery won his first game, albeit it was against an FCS school, Wofford, 38-6. Nevertheless, the Hokies needed something to get them going in the right direction after a 0-3 start, and the defense stepped up and allowed minus-1 yard rushing on 23 carries by the Terriers. Kyron Drones put up some good numbers for Virginia Tech, completing 27 of 32 for 307 yards and two TDs with no interceptions. The game stayed UNDER thanks to the Hokies' best defensive showing since their 21-6 win over Georgia Tech in Week 7 of last season. N.C. State suffered its first loss following three close wins as it fell to Duke 45-33. The Wolfpack are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games after allowing at least 40 points in their previous game. N.C. State quarterback CJ Bailey threw three interceptions, and the Wolfpack also had a field goal blocked. N.C. State is on a 6-12 ATS skid, and it is 2-9-1 ATS in September. This is a high posted total that does not take into account the Hokies' improved defense under the new coach. Take Virginia Tech and the UNDER.

N.C. State lost its starting quarterback and the ACC preseason player of the year, Devin Leary, who is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle suffered in a 19-17 win over Florida State on Oct. 8. The Wolfpack then went out and lost 24-9 to Syracuse while managing only three field goals and backup Jack Chambers completed 18 of 30 for 160 yards and finished with a 78.2 QB rating. The Wolfpack were outgained 389-255 and Chambers led the team in rushing with 58 yards on 19 carries. Virginia Tech now has an opportunity to stop a four-game skid and it won the last meeting 45-24 in 2020. N.C. State also has injuries to key players such as tight end Trent Pennix, who was injured in the opener against East Carolina although he could be back this week and receiver Devin Carter, who is questionable. The Hokies have covered five of seven following a loss dating to last season and the Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS their past four games while scoring an average of just 16 points their past three games. N.C. State appears to be a demoralized team without their leader. Make it a Max Play on Virginia Tech ATS, and book them on the moneyline for a half-unit.

NC State added offensive coordinator Tim Beck (from Texas) to upgrade the offense, and it was sensational in Week 1, putting up 45 points and 270 yards rushing (5.5 yards per carry) in a victory over Wake Forest. The offensive line and ground attack were expected to be the strength of the team, and the group is clearly very good. The defense allowed just 3.0 yards per carry in the opener and forced a turnover. While NC State has a game under its belt, this is the opener for Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech will be without legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster (retired) for the first time since 1986. His replacement, 37-year old Justin Hamilton, is in his first FBS coordinating gig. There are also concerns about the ground game with new running backs. Last year's team was good (8-5) but not dominant, winning three games by six, seven, and two points, while losing four times by seven, one, nine, and seven points...along with a 45-10 loss at home to Duke. Play NC State.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have played mostly one way over the last 35 years or so. The offense is usually marginal, and the defense usually leads the way. Over that period, the Hokies have played 433 games and have combined to see just 44.9 points per game scored between both teams. If you think that has changed over the last three years, it hasn't, as they are at 45.1. Basically this approach has the Hokies as one of the strongest, and most consistent UNDER teams in CFB. And, since the start of the 2006 season they are 70-48-2 to the UNDER. NC State saw their perfect 4-0 start come to a screeching halt last week vs. Louisville, losing as a small home favorite by a 20-13 score. What Louisville did was expose the NC State offense as not being what it appeared, after amassing 185 points in four wins. Virginia Tech was held to 13 points last week, and almost won, holding their opponent to 17. I see this one playing out in similar fashion, and will go with the UNDER.