NC State Wolfpack vs Virginia Cavaliers

It has been a tough road for the Virginia Cavaliers over the last five years, as last year's squad has been the only team that has made it to a Bowl game. They are one loss away from not making one this year. With six straight in the loss column, they aren't looking much like a Bowl team anyway. By contrast, the Wolf Pack comes in needing one more win to become Bowl eligible. They own a signature win over Florida State, so they certainly can play at a high level when called upon. NC State has struggled vs. good passing teams, but in five games otherwise, they have not allowed any team over 18 points. They are likely going to achieve those defensive numbers here vs. a Virginia squad that has not topped the 20-point mark in six games vs. BCS conference competition. The Cavaliers have been one of the worst cover teams in CFB at 1-9-1 ATS over their last 11, including 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine on grass. The Wolfpack have been sensational at picking up the pieces after a loss where they are now 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 when following a setback. Virginia is 0-15 ATS the past three years when allowing 28+ points and NC State is all but guaranteed to score in that range here (they average 33 per game at home while Virginia gives up 42 per game on the road). Take NC State minus the points.

The Virginia Cavaliers have played five of their six games under the total. The Cavs returned 10 on the defensive side of the ball to start the season and the defense has been a good part of the reason they have already matched last season's win total at four. NC State took a hit when QB Russell Wilson transferred to Wisconsin. The Wolfpack have put up 35 or more points in four games but they have faced five poor defenses. Versus the one good defense they have seen (Cincinnati ranked #28), NC State rushed for -14 yards and Mike Glennon threw two INT's and the Wolfpack scored just 14 points. NC State scored on an 87 yard and 49 yard pass plays, so basically they did not sustain a drive the entire game. Virginia ranks #21 on defense and I expect the Wolfpack to struggle again on offense. Virginia has gone 34-15-3 to the UNDER in their last 52 conference games and overall they are 20-7 to the UNDER in their last 27 as a home favorite. Look for a low-scoring game here.