NC State Wolfpack vs Pittsburgh Panthers Point Spread Picks

It was around this point last season when Pittsburgh went into a tailspin, losing its final six games. Maybe that doesn't happen to the Panthers this season. But it's still a sell-high time to fade Pittsburgh here, taking this many points with North Carolina State. The 4-3 Wolfpack were idle last week after losing on the road to Notre Dame, 36-7. North Carolina State has bowl aspirations, so this is an important game, and they have had ample time to prepare. Pittsburgh has an outstanding run defense, but has yet to encounter a running back as good as North Carolina State's Hollywood Smothers, who leads the ACC in rushing by nearly 200 yards, with 739 yards on 112 attempts for a 6.6-yard average. Smothers has put up these numbers despite having a bye last week and being held in check by Notre Dame. If the Panthers key on Smothers, Wolfpack veteran quarterback CJ Bailey is good enough to take advantage. Pittsburgh has a freshman quarterback, Mason Heintschel, playing behind a retooled offensive line, which ranks 110th in rushing and has committed 11 turnovers. Take North Carolina State. 

North Carolina State came out of nowhere last season to turn a 2-6 start into a Bowl bid by running the table in their last four games. They covered the spread in nine of their last ten games. The expectations have followed those results into this season. They have whipped up on two cupcakes, but found the going tough at home vs. South Carolina where the Wolfpack offense generated just three points. They put up an anemic 133 yards for the game. Pittsburgh on the other hand, comes in 3-0 after an impressive win over a Navy team that is better than NC State, at least at this point of the season as Navy previously went into Ohio State and lost by just four points. The impressive part for the Panthers is that they held a Navy rushing attack, which always generates major yardage, to just 129 yards on 46 carries (2.8 ypc). The Panthers are getting great QB play from Bill Stull who has completed 70% of his passes for six TDs and just one interception. And, Dion Lewis has been sensational on the ground with 398 yards on 67 attempts getting 6 yards per carry. The problem for NC State is they are paper thin on both the offensive and defensive line where the games are ultimately won or lost. Pitt is 13-5 ATS on the road the past four seasons and NC State is on a 12-22 ATS run as a home favorite. In their last 15 games as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points, the Wolfpack are just 3-12 ATS. I like the Panthers to win this game.