Navy Midshipmen vs San Diego State Aztecs Point Spread Picks

Navy takes on San Diego State for the second time in a Bowl game in the last four years, and the first one did not work out very well as they lost 35-14. The problem here is that the game is once again a home game for San Diego State, and that will add extra fuel to their opponent. At home this season, the Aztecs have allowed an amazing 12.7 points per game! Navy will keep the ball on the ground as usual, but the last time they faced San Diego State here they managed just 4.6 yards per carry - not good enough for them to sustain drives and score. QB Keenan Reynolds has to come back quickly from a hamstring injury he suffered late in the Army game and may not be effective. Since Rocky Long took over at San Diego State, the Aztecs are 19-9 UNDER as a favorite and 18-6 UNDER following an ATS win. Since the start of the 2006 Bowl season, there have been six Bowl games played represented by a home team, and just one of them managed to get over the total. On average, the games have fallen short of the total by 13 points per game. This one will follow suit and also finish UNDER.

This is a home game for the San Diego State Aztecs. But it is a homecoming game for the Naval Academy, as one of the largest naval bases in the country is in San Diego. So, it won't be surprising to see this stadium have roughly an equal number of Navy fans, if not more. The military academies create quite the problem when facing teams for the first time, as they all run the triple option. And, Navy perhaps over the last decade, has done it better than any of them. Ricky Dobbs has produced back-to-back 1,000 rushing/1,000 passing seasons for the Academy and will present a lot of problems for the Aztecs. Running dogs fare well in Bowl games as it is, but when it comes to Navy no team has been better. The Naval Academy has gone 70-34-2 ATS as a dog in their last 106 games, and that has been even better in recent years as they are 41-13 ATS in that same role in their last 54. Military schools have gone 22-9 ATS in their last 31 Bowl games, and if you bring them in against a good opponent with a winning percentage of over .600 they are an incredible 17-3 ATS. Navy is also 14-2 ATS vs. Mountain West teams, and have covered their last seven games vs. teams with a winning record. They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. good offensive teams like SDSU (those averaging 425+ yards per game). The Aztecs may be the home team, but it begins and ends there. Navy gets this one.