Mississippi Rebels vs UL Monroe Warhawks Point Spread Picks

Some SEC teams like to schedule a bad out of conference opponent late in the season. The theory is after a physical several weeks of conference games it gives the team a chance to almost have a bye situation as starters will play limited snaps in a big blowout win. While the blowout is almost a certainty, the cover is not. SEC teams playing from week 8 out in the regular season as a -28 or more point favorite cover just 43.6% of ll games. The cover is harder to come by if the line is -35 or more as it drops to 41.5%. While tese lines appear to be fair, the game situation has a hard time measuring up because our big SEC favorites are playing the bulk of the game with reserves. Good situation for a bad team. Make the play on UL Monroe.

Louisiana-Monroe is a huge dog but has a very good quarterback in Caleb Evans, who has more TDs than picks and is their leading rusher with 264 yards, 5.0 yards per carry. Louisiana-Monroe is averaging 398 yards of total offense. The Warhawks have covered five of the last seven against winning teams. They head to a Mississippi squad in a sandwich spot, off a 45-16 loss to LSU with another SEC game on deck at Arkansas. Ole Miss safety C.J. Moore will miss the rest of the season and the thin secondary just moved running backs Armani Linton and Tylan Knight to play defense. Ole Miss is on a money-burning 7-16-1 spread run, including 3-10 ATS at home. Play UL Monroe.