Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Point Spread Picks

The Big 12 ranked third in college football's power rankings this season, while the SEC (as usual) was No. 1. Mississippi started 7-0 but comes into this bowl losing three straight. However, don't read too much into the slump. They lost to No. 9 Alabama, 30-24, in a squeaker as a double-digit underdog, plus lost 24-22 in the finale to an 8-4 Mississippi State squad. They also beat No. 7 Kentucky, 22-19, earlier in the season. The offense is loaded with speed and talent, ninth in the nation with 489.6 yards per game. They're second in rushing with 264.2 yards per contest behind RBs Quinshon Judkins (1,476 yards, 5.9 yards per carry) and Zach Evans (899 yards, 6.6 ypc). Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS away from home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Texas Tech has had to use three quarterbacks because of injuries and the trio combined for 25 TDs and 17 interceptions. The Red Raiders went 2-4 against Top 25 teams surrendering 30, 27, 34, 37, 41, and 34 points. The defense was 80th in the country on third down (40.35%) and the team is 11-24 ATS off a win over a Big 12 rival as a dog. T-Tech is also 88-55 OVER the total against winning teams, 42-15 OVER versus opponents that rush for 200+ yards per game, and 30-15 OVER when playing with two or more weeks of rest. Play Mississippi + OVER the total.

Kliff Kingsbury got a huge win vs. Texas that made the Red Raiders Bowl eligible a year ago, perhaps saving his job. He is going to be under the microscope all season, and he may not have the talent to deliver. Defense has always been the soft spot with his team, but DC David Gibbs is starting to build a defense that has been better than what we have seen in the Kingsbury era. Tech allowed 43.5 points per game in 2016, but just 32.2 ppg a year ago, and with nine starters returning, those numbers should fall again this season. Matt Like got the most he could out of a mediocre team last season,  but there are lots of problems in this program, and Ole Miss will be banned from Bowl play, making things a bit more challenging. Defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff saw his defense get hammered for 270 yards per game last year and he has added a lot of bulk to his 4-2-5 set. This should allow the Rebels to shave some yards off opponents' run games, and do a better job defending the run. Look for this one to play UNDER the total.