Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

Wisconsin has covered four in a row, all against Top 25 opponents. They come off a 27-10 win over No. 21 Illinois as a +8.5 underdog. They also knocked off No. 23 Washington, 13-10, as a double-digit dog. The defense is 30th in the country in total yards allowed. Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost two in a row against Northwestern (38-35) and Oregon (42-13). Minnesota's defense is ranked 68th, giving up 380.5 yards per game, plus 97th on third down (42.74%). On offense, the ground game averages just 3.6 yards per carry. Minnesota is on a 3-8 ATS run. Play Wisconsin. 

It comes down to the final game for Minnesota at 5-6. They need to beat Wisconsin at home to become Bowl eligible. Minnesota has made it to a Bowl game in nine of the past 10 seasons, excluding the Covid season. Wisconsin is 6-5 on the season, but their last three games have all been losses to Nebraska, Northwestern, and Indiana. Those three teams are not the best of the Big Ten so they have had issues. The issues for Wisconsin is the fact they have scored just 15 PPG in their last four games and not exactly vs. overwhelming competition. Coach Fleck really emphasizes defense at Minnesota, and when his team has allowed 31 or more ponts in two straight games they typically rise to the occasion in their next game at 9-1 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

Minnesota's offense is one-dimensional, mostly rushing behind workhorse RB Mohamed Ibrahim (1,524 yards, 5.5 ypc). Their two quarterbacks have combined for 8 TDs and 9 picks. Starter Tanner Morgan is banged up and may not play, so freshman QB Athan Kaliakmanis (1 TD, 4 INTs) may have to start again. They come off of a 13-10 loss to Iowa, their fourth straight game UNDER the total. That's because the defense has been great allowing 29 total points in four games. For the season, Minnesota's defense is sixth in the nation in yards allowed (282.6 pg) and third in points surrendered (13.4 pg). Minnesota is 16-6 UNDER the total on the road after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the last game. Wisconsin's defense is 10th in yards allowed (300.6 pg) as they come home from a two-game trip, a 24-10 loss at Iowa and a 15-14 win at Nebraska. The Badgers are 29-15 UNDER when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. And college football teams that have winning percentages of 60%-80% and 51%-60% facing each other in conference action are 93-48 UNDER the total. Take Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER the total.